It's time to face the facts: As it is, this is not a very good team

Everything you needed to know about the Eagles’ season was contained in their first offensive “possession,” if you can call it that:

Play 1: Unprepared, the Eagles are confused, especially McNabb who panics and throws the ball 5 feet in front of Owens.

Play 2: The O-Line can’t hold off and all-out blitz, McNabb forced to throw it away.

Play 3: Confused and hesitant, Reid can’t get the play in on time and the Eagles have to waste a timeout on their third play.

Three plays, three incompletions, three examples of the utter incompetence of the quarterback and the coach.

Let’s be direct. The Eagles are not a good team. That they are 4-3 has much more to do with luck than with skill. Through seven games they have played well for about three halves. That is it. This team, unless it undergoes a drastic and all-too-unlikely transformation, will not make the playoffs. And really, it shouldn’t.

Why are the Eagles so poor this year? There is plenty of blame to go around.

Both of their lines are below average – the defensive line does not get enough pressure on the opponents’ QB and the offensive line is both totally unable to open holes in the run game and has not consistently provided time for Donovan McNabb to throw the football.

Brian Westbrook is not a good runner. He is an excellent weapon out of the backfield, but he doesn’t see and hit holes quickly and will never cause opposing defenses to fear the Eagles’ running game.

After Terrell Owens, the Eagles have no adequate wide receiver. As much as many Eagles fans (including my compatriot Ellick) like to deride Todd “Stinkston,” losing him in the preseason has hurt the Eagles’ offense. Greg Lewis is simply not an NFL caliber #2 WR and Reggie Brown hasn’t shown much of anything this year.

Josh Parry and Steven Spach are wastes of roster spaces. No, FB and the #2 TE are not critical positions on this or any NFL team, but having simply adequate players at those positions would make a difference.

All of these flaws are problems, significant ones. But really, they are not at the heart of this disastrous season. There are only two men to blame for this fiasco: Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid.

First McNabb, the lesser of the two evils: Right now, McNabb is a bad quarterback. Not merely good, not average, but BAD. All of those negative traits that seemed to fade to the background last year are back with a vengeance, but they are no long balanced out by McNabb’s latent athleticism and talent. McNabb’s accuracy has always been inconsistent. This year, it is flat out poor. His pocket presence and awareness has always been questionable, this year it is non-existent. His happy feet are back. When he is under any pressure, he panics. He repeatedly makes bad decisions, leading to sacks and turnovers. He has trouble reading defenses and fails to recognize wide-open receivers. Because of the injury, he cannot throw a good deep ball, or get the zip on the 15-25 yard throws he used to be to adept at. Between the injury and his own stubbornness he is no longer a threat to run the ball; that threat was always the x-factor that made McNabb one of the league’s better QBs. Add all of that up and you have a quarterback who just can’t get the job done.

0-12 to start a game is almost unprecedented in the annals of poor NFL QB performances. And while McNabb turned his play around in the 3rd quarter, it was also his poor play on the potential game-tying drive that killed the comeback. On that drive he missed TO for a deep touchdown that would have tied the game when TO had beaten rookie CB Dominique Foxworth by two steps. He did not see an LJ open Smith on the 2nd down play where he instead tried to force the ball to TO on the sidelines (a play TO should have made, no doubt). Most infuriating, he didn’t see a WIDE OPEN Lamar Gordon for a sure 15-20 yard gain on 3rd down and instead tried to force a pass to rookie Reggie Brown that was, of course, intercepted.

Could Mike McMahon or Koy Detmer do any better? In terms of talent, probably not – but if Reid had to go to war with a backup perhaps he’d finally decide to run the ball, so the Eagles might actually be better with McMahon or Detmer. Regardless, at this point hasn’t it become obvious that McNabb needs to recognize reality and have his sports hernia fixed? It’s probably too late now to save the season – had he and Andy Reid decided to fix the problem weeks ago, as we suggested, it might not have been – but there is not other choice at this point. I don’t know if this seemingly miraculous German surgery with a two-week recovery period is for real, but the Eagles should be finding out. Even if it’s not, the traditional surgery has a recovery period of six to eight weeks; there are still nine weeks left in the season. Perhaps the Eagles can struggle to a Wild Card berth with McMahon at the helm and then get a healthy McNabb back for the playoffs. It’s worth a shot.

Now, the greater of the two evils: Andy Reid. Where to begin? His performance this year has been bad enough to deserve comparison to Mike Tice. Let’s take a look at his performance in five vital areas.

Game Preparation: Very poor. The Eagles have come out ready to play only once all season – against the woeful 49ers. In every other game this year, they have come out flat and unprepared, even against the Chargers, after their bye. Reid simply does not know how to get his players up for the game. No NFL team can consistently spot the opposition two or more TDs and hope to win.

Game Planning: Very poor. This is related to the previous point, of course, but it deserves a separate category. Aside from not getting his players ready, Reid has had no clue how to deal with opponents’ offenses or defenses. His “scripts” for the first 8-12 plays should simply be thrown in the trash – they obviously never work. He has not been able to identify and attack opponents’ weaknesses – instead, the Eagles are always reacting to the opposition. Reid had no answer for the Bronco’s all out blitz. He and McNabb were both utterly confused and couldn’t adjust until the game was already lost. And why did it take two and a half quarter for the Eagles to go after Champ Bailey and his injured hamstring? Going into this game the Broncos CB situation looked like this: #1 CB was hampered by an injured hamstring, #2 CB was a rookie, #3 CB was out, #4 CB was a rookie. Shouldn’t an offensive “genius” like Reid be able to create and exploit one-on-one match-ups with the Bronco’s depleted CBs?

Play Calling: Atrocious. Yes, the utter and incomprehensible refusal to run is a large part of this. One run in the first 12 plays, when 10 of those end up as incompletions, is laughable. But it’s more than this. Reid’s play calling has become entirely predictable and lacks any creativity. He does now know how to call a series of plays to set the opposition up for a change of pace or to keep them off-balance. He does not utilize his weapons for maximum performance – why do Josh Parry and Steven Spach ever have their numbers called? Where are running plays for Ryan Moats or Lamar Gordon? Gordon had two carried for 16 yards yesterday. He is a good inside runner. Why can he not get five carries a game? His calls at import points of the game - 4th and 1 against the Chargers for instance - make no sense.

Time Management: Terrible. The debacle at the end of the first half last week is only a symptom of a larger problem. Reid is simply hesitant and unsure of himself on the sideline. He takes forever to get his plays into McNabb, resulting in the Eagles wasting their timeouts early almost every half – this happened on the third play of the game this week, for goodness sake.

Mid-Game Adjustments: Poor. This was actually the first time I can remember seeing the Eagles come out after the half and make needed adjustments. After the first possession of the 3rd quarter Reid called nine effective runs and 10 passes and focused on exploiting TO’s one-on-one match-ups against Denver’s depleted cornerbacks. Not surprisingly, the Eagles finally had success – scoring 14 points and getting the team briefly back into the game. Unfortunately, it was too little too late. Reid said, “I did a better job on that, I need to get to that earlier.” You think Andy?

Reid turned the fortunes of this franchise around. But it is looking more and more like they peaked last year and Reid with them. No matter how poorly the Eagles play, no matter how much the fans, media or players complain, Reid refuses to change his ways for the better. He is stubborn and arrogant. Thus success he’s had the past four years, it seems, has ruined him. He does not realize that what worked then might not work now. In fact, it almost seems like Reid would rather lose his way than win anyone else’s way.

As hard as it is for Eagles fans too admit, and no one will for at least a couple more years, if Reid cannot adjust his tactics and fix this team, the Eagles need to consider moving beyond the Andy Reid era. He is no longer getting it done as a game day coach. And his poor work this offseason, especially in a draft in which the Eagles had multiple extra picks, will not make up for his coaching deficiencies.

As long as this coach and this quarterback continue to coach and play as they are, this team will struggle to stay above .500. Changes must be made. I don’t think they will be.

Sorry for our hiatus

As you may have noticed, we have not posted since before the Chargers game. We apologize for this, but we are now back and hope to keep up a more regular pace.

The Times They a-Runnin'

This week I expect the Eagles to run often and successfully. I believe they will surprise all by exhibiting the wonderful balanced offense that we all wonder why we can't witness it every week: 60 percent pass, 40 percent run.

My bold foolish prediction is rooted in several points:

-Andy Reid was less Bush-esque in his quotes this week, and probably the most specific and candid he has been all season. Instead of giving meaningless answers that shed no light onto the team, he actually referenced the run and admitted it needs to improve. It may seen trivial, but after weeks of "we need to take a look at things," it is a new level of awareness.

-as we have written, the Dallas loss shows that a good opposing coach can easily cripple any off-balanced offense, even with the talent of the Birds.

-History! As written in a previous blog, in past seasons we have seen brutal losses coerce Reid to run the ball more, and the result has almost always birthed a mid-season winning steak of at least 6 games. It is sad we have to relearn this lesson annually.

Look for loads of running mixed with several big passing plays that are clearly a result of the abusive running style. In some way, I believe this week is the most important game of the season. If the Dallas loss, compounded with two weeks of introspection, doesn't force Reid to balance his offense, then I give-up my hope that we will ever win a Super Bowl with this bozo.

Run, Andy, Run, at least this week.

Eagles 31, Chargers 17.

"Let’s keep running the ball. We gotta run the ball.”

I’m watching “Inside the NFL” on HBO right now. They are showing the highlights of Rams-Colts Monday night game, including excerpts from a miced-up Peyton Manning. After falling behind 17-0 (sound familiar?) and finding little success in the passing game, Manning and the Colts switched tactics. In the huddle he told is offense, “They’re playing pass all day, let’s keep running the ball. We gotta run the ball.” And they did.

James ended up with 143 yards at 6.3 ypc and three TDs, and the Colts outscored the Rams 43-10 the rest of the way.

Maybe Manning was onto something?

Key Matchup: Eagles MLB Jeremiah Trotter vs. Chargers FB Lorenzo Neal

The focus of the Eagles defense this week is obvious: LaDainian Tomlinson, the NFL’s best player. Tomlinson is simply outstanding, perhaps one of the five most talented running backs in NFL history. However, fullback Lorenzo Neal has played a significant part in San Diego’s success running the football, something that is often overlooked.

USA Today ranks Neal, along with the Chiefs’ Tony Richardson and the Niners’ Fred Beasley, as one of only three “elite” fullback in the NFL, and with good reason. Neal isn’t a top-notch pass catcher and he hardly ever runs the ball, but is one of the best lead blockers in the league. Take a look at the performance of the three running backs Neal has blocked for over the past six years:

Year Team RB Yards TD

1999 Tenn Eddie George 1304 9
2000 Tenn Eddie George 1509 14
2001 Cinn Corey Dillon 1315 10
2002 Cinn Corey Dillon 1311 7
2003 S.D. Tomlinson 1643 13
2004 S.D. Tomlinson 1335 17

That’s an average of 1400 yards and 12 TDs per year, pretty good statistics. Certainly, these are good backs in their own right, but the difference Neal has made is significant. When Neal left the Titans after the 2000 season, for instance, George’s yards per carry dropped from 3.7 to 3.0 and his addition to the Chargers’ roster for the 2003 season boosted Tomlinson’s ypc from an already impressive 4.5 to a stellar 5.3.

At 5’11” 255 lbs, Neal is strong and can take on not only linebackers but defensive linemen as well. What makes him great, however, is the same thing that sets Tomlinson apart from other running backs: vision and awareness. The Chargers will run the ball straight up the gut, but they excel stretching Tomlinson out wide and letting him read his blocks before cutting quickly into the available hole. Neal is superb at reading the blocks of the Chargers’ offensive linemen and quickly identifying and meeting the free linebacker, allowing Tomlinson to spring into the secondary. Often times that key block will be against the opponents’ middle linebacker, sealing him to the inside and giving LT the chance to cut back into the middle of the field.

This brings us to Jeremiah Trotter. With 29 tackles in his last 3 games, he is the Eagle’s most important player against the run. Last week, the Cowboys’ offensive line dominated the Eagles’ defensive line, often allowing a guard or center to get to the second level for the most part unmolested. With the return of Darwin Walker and the prospect of facing a less talented Chargers’ offensive line, Trotter should face less harassment from lineman, leaving him free to run to Tomlinson – if he can get past Neal. His ability to do that could be the difference between victory and defeat for the Birds.

Why the Eagles are Struggling: A look back at the offseason

As I noted earlier, Mark Eckel has an uncharacteristically insightful column on the Eagles current woes. His lede: “The Eagles' front office and personnel staff, armed with almost as much arrogance as salary cap room, built a 53-man roster that might be costing them as they go into the bye week at 3-2.”

Some of the Eagles’ problems have to do with coaching and philosophy. These, hopefully, can be fixed. But the Eagles biggest problem this year is simple: talent. They simply are not as talented this year as they were last year. That’s a same since they had an opportunity to not only stay level, but take the next step, a step that would have made them Super Bowl favorites.

The Eagles’ situation as they entered the 2005 offseason:

They had just dominated the NFC and come oh-so-close to beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

They had $14 million in cap space.
They had extra (high) 2nd, (mid) 3rd, and (high) 5th round picks.

They had several important UFAs:

Jeremiah Trotter
Keith Adams
Ike Reese
Derrick Burgess
Jermane Mayberry
Correll Buckhalter
Corey Simon (Franchise Tag)

And one important RFA in Brain Westbrook.

(Less important FAs included Ian Allen, Jon Ritchie, Dorsey Levens and Hugh Douglas).

The Eagles also had some obvious holes that, had they been filled, could have changed the complexion of this team: an every-down defensive end opposite Jevon Kearse, a Reggie Wayne type #2 WR opposite Terrell Owens, an athletic, playmaking WIL linebacker, a talented power back to complement Brian Westbrook, and a stud run blocking guard or center to replace Artis Hicks or Hank Fraley.

Retaining Free Agents:

The Eagles concentrated almost solely on their own free agents. Resigning Trotter was their biggest success; losing him would have been a big blow to the defense. Bringing Adams back was also an important move, if only to keep Marc Simoneau out of the starting lineup. By bringing Buckhalter back, however, was a mistake. Counting on the obviously injury prone Buckhalter allowed the Eagles to ignore an obvious need at RB.

As for the ones who got away, letting Burgess sign his $17.5 million dollar deal with the Raiders was the right move, since ND Kalu is capable of filling the same role (which should not be starting). Letting Mayberry collect his $8 million bonus and walk to the New Orleans was also the right move, as Andrews was ready to take his place.
The two big mistakes were Ike Reese and Corey Simon.

The Falcons offered Reese an opportunity to compete for a starting job (something he’s only now getting a chance to do with Ed Hartwell’s injury), something the Eagles couldn’t. Still, Reese was open to staying with the Eagles if the price was right. The Eagles decided that since he was a backup, Reese wasn’t worth the price. They underestimated his importance on special teams and are now paying the price.

Letting Corey Simon walk for nothing was the bigger, and more inexplicable mistake. The Eagles and their apologists offer all sorts of excuses (Mike Patterson is better, Simon wasn’t worth the franchise tender, etc) and point to the team’s track record of letting talented but older players walk. But these excuses don’t hold water. You simply can’t let a commodity like a pro bowl defensive tackle walk away for nothing. Two teams offered the Eagles a 2nd and 3rd round pick for Simon. He obviously had value. Mike Patterson looks great, but that is irrelevant. The Eagles could have had Mike Patterson and Corey Simon or Mike Patterson and two draft picks. Simon might not be worth $5 million, but with $14 million in cap space, the Eagles could afford a one year, no signing bonus deal. Trading Simon would have been the ideal scenario, but failing that, they should have let him sit until he signed the tender.

Acquiring Other Free Agents:

This was the Eagles’ biggest failure. The Eagles had the cap space to add perhaps two, but more likely one, impact players to this team. Not another Terrell Owens, but a good starter who could have improved this team. Here is a list of some free agents who were available:

DE:

Reggie Hayward
Darren Howard (Franchised – trade required)

RB:

Najeh Davenport (RFA – 4th round pick compensation)

OG:

Joe Andruzzi
Rick DeMulling
Marco Rivera
Mike Wahle

WR:

Plaxico Buress
Derrick Mason

LB:

Kendrell Bell

In my opinion, Reggie Hayward or Darren Howard would have been slam dunk additions. Najeh Davenport or Derrick Mason could have changed the face of this offense. Any one of Andruzzi, DeMulling, Rivera or Wahle would have improved the line. Bell would have added a play maker on D.

The Eagles pursued only one of these players: Kendrell Bell, and only as a replacement for Trotter (when Trotter resigned Bell’s scheduled visit was cancelled). The Eagles’ only signing: Mike McMahon.

Instead of adding one or two impact players, the Eagles took $12 million in cap space into the season. $12 million of cap space that remains unused. Hopefully Joe Banner will use that space to resign Brian Westbrook and Mike Lewis to long-term deals, and I’m all for that forward thinking approach. But when you have a team that might be only a player or two away from a Super Bowl championship, you have to seize the opportunity.

The Draft:

The Eagles only real additions to this team came through the draft. The team has always used the draft to build for the future, and that is the right approach, so expecting a huge impact from their draftees in not realistic. Still, because they didn’t add any free agents, this was the Eagles’ only avenue to improvement. Not surprisingly, it hasn’t happened.

Mike Patterson has looked good so far, leading the Birds’ with two sacks. He was a good pick and will hopefully continue to make a difference. After him, there’s not much. Reggie Brown was hyped big time by the Eagles coaching staff during training camp, but he has been nearly invisible as the #3 WR so far. Matt McCoy was simply a wasted pick. He won’t make an impact for this team this year, or in the future. Ryan Moats was the Eagles’ best pick but he has yet to see the field. The Birds need to find a way to get him on the field.

More disappointingly, the Eagles stood pat. Instead of using their excess picks to trade up for a Derrick Johnson or Mark Clayton, they made no real moves.

The Result

As Ellick and I have continually pointed out, the leadership of this team is stubborn and arrogant. They have been generally successful, but that success has led them to believe their own hype and, as a result, they became insular and inflexible. They believed they were smarter than everyone else and, gosh darn, they were going to show everyone just how smart they were.

The Eagles still have a chance to do well this year. But if they don’t look no further than that arrogance for the reason.

Eckel gets it exactly right

Mark Eckel is usually the last "journalist" you'd see me praising here. But he hits the nail on the head with his latest column:

"The Eagles' front office and personnel staff, armed with almost as much arrogance as salary cap room, built a 53-man roster that might be costing them as they go into the bye week at 3-2. See, the Eagles feel every decision they make is the right one, and damn you if you dare to question them...."

So it goes when you don't run...

Run Andy Run: Intellectual Eagles Commentary

It is a blow to my ego to refer readers to Philly.com, but Rich Hoffman’s column in today’s paper pretty much sums up the Eagles.


http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/12863551.htm

This team is good, not great. Last year’s dominance as a superior team is all but dead. The Birds can still return to the Super Bowl, but they’re equally as likely to go down in the first round.

Blind proponents may argue it’s just one loss, even a healthy loss that will encourage introspection over two weeks with the upcoming bye.

Wishful thinking, for sure. Yesterday’s beating was a methodical, gradual dominance from the line of scrimmage to special teams. Here are the major concerns:

DE: I loved the Kearse signing before last season, but he must be released after this year. Although he’s surely better than most DEs, Kearse was adequate at best last year, and has been awful at best this year, especially for $15 million per year. He may be a big name, and he remains impressively athletic, but he’s no more productive than Mike Mamula. Close by no sack. He’s getting pushed off the line of scrimmage, especially against the run. Never mind he went against a rookie OT. ND Kalu is also a lightweight. I have more sympathy for the DTs, for they are banged up and played merely one poor game. But the DEs have lacked pressure all season, against both the pass and run.

Despite an Izel Jenkins-like performance by Lito Sheppard, I blame the DE for most the secondary breakdowns. Without pressure, even the best secondary in the league will fail. Problems start upfront.

BIG PLAYS: Big-plays are also killing the Birds. In the past few seasons, they rarely gave up more than 30 yards. I don’t have the number off-hand, but there was an absurd statistics that last year the Birds never gave up a play more than 30 yards (or something like that). This year, they’re giving up big plays aplenty.

MCBAD: I’d like to call your attention to shameless network broadcasters who haven’t once directly criticized McBad since the Rush incident. Rush was correct: McBad is overrated. Obviously it’s not a race issue, but the bottom line persists: McBad is overrated. In the 4th quarter, Aikman said, “they couldn’t find open guys.” What a poor excuse for criticism. What does Aikman mean by “they?” It’s MCBAD. One player. And finding open guys wasn’t his problem. Hitting them has been his continuous problem. When he misfired a bomb to a wide-open Greg Lewis in the 1st quarter, there was no criticism whatsoever. Ditto last week when he overthrew two sure TDs against KC. Yesterday’s pass to 36 could’ve been caught, but it was still a poor pass, and a sure TD. McBad desperately needs surgery, and the combined stubbornness of Reid of McBad is bound to doom the season once the weather cools.

SPECIAL TEAMS: In the past five years, I cannot remember the Eagles giving up 15 to 30 yard punt returns. Forget Daunte Hall’s big play TD last week. That guy is automatic. But the Birds are consistently giving up 25 yards on field possession, and the punt is the most important play in football. I don’t blame coaching here. I blame a lack of talent/depth. Simenou and Bartrum are a far cry from Ike Reese and JR Reed.

HOPE: Optimism exists in a lesson from 2002, when Andy Reid had an equally brutal, week five loss in Jacksonville. It coerced him to revive the run game and the Birds, with a balanced offense, won nine of their next 10.

Stubborn Reid learned the same lesson in 2003, when the 3-3 Birds beat the Jets by running for 194 yards, prompting the Eagles to win eight straight with a balanced offense.

Why does Reid have to repeatedly learn the same lesson. Any viable coach (Fox, Parcells, Belichick) can easily stop this off-balanced offense. Yesterday’s loss is the result of weeks of Reid’s obsessive running attack.

I’m sorry to waste any space on this blog on baseball, but today is a joyous day in Philadelphia. I praise the Phillies for firing Ed Wade. I can now return to the ballpark.

Bye Week Assesment: Eagles don't live up to the hype

In an another post Ellick discussed the Eagles problems this year and referenced Rich Hofmann’s column in today’s Daily News. Both of them beat me to post I wanted to write on the Eagles’ problems and why, frankly, they simply aren’t an elite team. Despite coming in a distant third, I’ll still add my thoughts.

First of all, the Eagles are still a good team. They still have a bunch of weapons on offense and some very good parts on defense. And, in a weak NFC, they are still as likely as any other team to take the conference. However, they are not the team they were last year. They are not head and shoulders above the conference. Here’s why:

1. The Defensive Ends

As Ellick and I have both pointed out in previous posts, Jevon Kearse has not lived up to his elite billing. Yes he is a good player. Yes he is an athletic freak. But no, he is not an elite NFL defensive end. Elite defensive ends consistently put pressure on the QB. They consistently get sacks. Kearse does not do that.

Kearse’s lack of production is compounded by a complete lack of depth at the position. ND Kalu is not an NFL starter. He is a good situational pass rusher but he is not an every down lineman. Trent Cole, and undersized 5th round pick is our 3rd DE. Juqua Thomas is an ok backup, but that that’s it. This just does not get consistent pressure on the QB. This was apparent not only against Dallas but against Oakland as well. It’s a bad sign when you’re hoping that Jerome McDougle can come back and solidify your DE rotation.

2. Donovan McNabb

Yes the chattering classes have been effusive with praise for McNabb this year. Chris Collingsworth even dubbed him the next Brett Farve (we’ve been hearing those comparisons for years – please give it a rest). Are any of these talking heads actually watching the games? McNabb has built impressive passing numbers this year by taking advantage of three terrible pass defenses: San Francisco, Oakland and Kansas City. Against Atlanta and Dallas he has been poor. Even against the three weaker teams often did not see open receivers or missed them when they did. His accuracy was atrocious against Dallas, not only missing a wide open Greg Lewis with a deep ball that would have tied the game at 7, but consistently missing receivers short all day.

McNabb has always had problems with accuracy and with reading defenses. He has improved to an extent, but it is becoming apparent that we will never be a stellar drop back passer. A good one, yes. A great one, no. What can make him an elite QB adding the extra threat of his ability to make plays with his feet. But that extra threat is now gone, both because of his injuries (which also seem to be hurting his passing) and because he and Reid stubbornly insist on trying to make him into something he is not.

McNabb needs to have his surgery. Heal up. Come back and start playing the game the way he used to play it.

3. The Interior OL

Shawn Andrews is basically a rookie and he’s had some rookie mistakes, but generally he has been good. Hank Fraley and Artis Hicks, on the other hand, have not been. Hicks and Fraley are below average run blockers – one of the reasons the Eagles have not been able to establish the run on the few times they tried. They have also been poor is pass protection, not providing Donovan McNabb enough time.

4. The Wide Receivers

That’s right, the WRs. TO is amazing. But after him, what? Despite many people’s hatred for Todd Pinkston (including our own Ellick), the guy was a good #2 and a very good deep threat. With 21 catches, Greg Lewis has been OK, but really hasn’t take much pressure off of TO. Reggie Brown, the #3 who was supposed to be so good in training camp, has only 6 catches.

It’s obvious that after TO, the Birds’ next two options are TE LJ Smith and RB Brian Westbrook. But if this offense is going to click it needs to get more out of the #2 and #3 WRs. This was especially obvious when LJ Smith left the Cowboys game with an injury. Without Smith on the field, all of a sudden the Eagles were down to only two real weapons: TO and Westbrook.

5. Special Teams

The kick coverage is bad. The reason is simple: the talent we have on the coverage teams isn’t very good. Losing Ike Reese has hurt. We need to start inserting some starters on these units, even it means a risk of injury.

Our return game is even worse. Our kickoff returns are consistently 25 yards or less. Punt returns are no better. Dexter Wynn and Rod Hood aren’t cutting it.

There are reports that Ryan Moats will be activated to return kicks after the bye. That is an experiment I’d like to see. I’d also like to see Brian Westbrook back returning kicks and he or Lito Sheppard returning punts. If Westbrook is only going to get five carries a game, at least the Eagles can give him some touches in the return game.

6. The Coach

This is last, but certainly not least. Andy Reid is just not a very good game day coach. In every game this year except for the 49ers game, the Eagles have come out flat and fallen behind early, three times by double digits. Reid has not had his players prepared to play, and he hasn’t had a good game plan.

His play calling, of course, also continues to be dreadful. We hate to sound like a broken record, but the Eagles CANNOT win a Super Bowl throwing the ball 80% of the time, especially when McNabb is so evidently not playing at his top capability. But Reid’s poor play calling is more than just his run-pass balance. He continues to put McNabb in the shotgun even though the formation does not work for the Eagles. He continues to run play action even though defenses know there is no threat of the run. He has become predictable and easy to read. For example: on a medium length 3rd down on one of the Eagles first drives of the game they lined up in the shotgun with TO in the backfield. TO ran a quick flare to the right and caught the pass, but was immediately stopped by two Cowboy defenders. As soon as the Eagles lined up as they did, the coming play was apparent to the entire bar I was in and, quite obviously, to the Cowboys as well.

Some of these problems could be solved. Hopefully, Reid will use this bye week to reassess this team and develop a different game plan for the Chargers and the opponents after that. Hopefully two weeks of rest bring McNabb’s game up a bit. Hopefully Darwin Walker gets healthy over the bye, restoring what is a pretty good DT rotation. Hopefully McDougle does make a difference at DE.

The Eagles still can get to Detroit. But they aren’t going to waltz through the NFC as they did last year. If they want to win this year, they need to take a serious look at this team. And they need to fix it.

Pasquarelli: Eagles won't resign Westbook

ESPN.com's Len Paquarelli reports in his "Heard in the Press Box (Atlanta)" section: "The Philadelphia Eagles will not be able to re-sign tailback Brian Westbrook to a contract extension. And they definitely will not use the franchise tag to retain his rights."

If this report has any validity then it is very disturbing. The Eagles have over $10 million in cap space this year and Westbrook has proven to be one of the most valuable Eagles. The Eagles modus operandi is to never pay more for a player than they think he is worth. Generally, this strategy has served them well, but like everything that Andy Reid gets involved in, they become stubborn about it and take it too far.

If the Eagles let Westbrook walk without replacing him with someone like Shaun Alexander, then they will be making a big mistake.

OT: Phils Fire Wade

My disgust over the Eagles' loss yesterday has been more than overcome by my utter joy at the news that the Phillies have finally, mercifully, ended Ed Wade's tenure as the Phillies’ GM.

As 8 year terms of incompetence go, Wade can only be matched by George W. Bush (we’re just going to assume that Bush isn’t going to change over the next three years).

He will be best remembered for his two terrible mega-deals: trading all stars Scott Rolen and Curt Schilling for absolutely nothing (Vincente Padia being the only player remaining from those two deals). But he was also guilty of dooming the Phils’ postseason chances by adding “veteran bullpen arms” seemingly every year who excelled only at giving up big hits at the wrong time. Finally, he vastly overpaid for the less than mediocre David Bell, whose salary will likely mean Phillies fans will be forced to watch him hit .250 with 20 errors again next year.

What’s next for the Phils? Well the first question is who Wade’s replacement will be. If the Phils end up promoting Ruben Amaro that is a sign that nothing will change. Hopefully they will look for a top-notch GM with Gerry Hunsicker or Brian Cashman being the most likely options. Red Sox’ GM Theo Epstein’s contract is expiring as well; if the Red Sox let him walk the Phillies should jump at him.

As for the roster. A lot of changes need to be made but it will be hard. Jim Thome must be traded to make room for Howard, even if the Phillies have to pick up ½ of his $15 million salary. We should move him for whatever prospects we can get and try too free up as much salary as we can.

Bobby Abreu is another likely candidate to be moved because, of all the Phillies’ big salaries, he is the one who has enough value as a player to actually move. Shipping Abreu to the White Sox makes a ton of sense. They are an anemic offensive team (and may lose Paul Konerko to free agency) but have a glut of starting pitchers in Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, Contreras, Hernandez and good looking rookie Brandon McCarthy. The Phils wouldn’t be interested in Contreras or Hernandez but an Abreu for Garland swap makes a lot of sense to me.

If the Phillies can trade David Bell then they should move him for whatever they can get. If he cannot be move they should simply designate him for assignment and eat his $5 million salary. He is a liability and cannot be our starting 3B this year.

The Phillies should exercise their option to buyout Mike Liberthal and let Carlos Ruiz and a mid-level free agent (Brad Ausmus, Ramon Hernandez, Benji Molina) share the job.

That leaves holes in RF and at 3B, but with money freed up by moving Thome, Abreu and Lieberthal, the Phillies should fill them by signing 3B Bill Mueller, who is 34 but is good for a .370 OBP every year, and Brian Giles who is 35 but is still a great run producer, to two-year deals.

Shane Victorino and Jason Michaels will platoon in center.

In the bullpen, the Phils should offer both Wagner and Urbina arbitration and let them both walk if they chose. I love Wagner, but we can’t afford to give a 34 year old pitcher a 3-year, $27 million deal. If he takes arbitration I’m happy to have him back for one year at $9 or $10 million, if he doesn’t then I’m happy to take the two picks to help restore our depleted farm system.

To replace Wagner and Urbina I’d sign two very good but unheralded back-end relievers: BJ Ryan and Kyle Farnsworth. Ryan had an ERA of 2.43 and Farnsworth an ERA of 2.22 and both made less than $2.6 million last year and could be had for much less than Wagner or Urbina.

The Phils also need to sign a real situational lefty like Scott Eyre.

Phew, that’s a lot of talk for some things that will never happen, but here are my 2006 Phillies:

SS – Jimmy Rollins (he leads off if he starts the next year the way he ended this one)
3B – Bill Mueller
RF – Brian Giles
LF – Pat Burrell
1B – Ryan Howard
2B – Chase Utley
CF – Jason Michaels / Shane Victorino
C – Carlos Ruiz / ?

Potential starters:

John Garland
Brett Myers
John Lieber
Cory Lidle
Randy Wolf
Vincente Padilla*
Robinson Tejeda*
Gavin Floyd
Cole Hamels

Potential bullpen:

BJ Ryan
Kyle Farsworth
Vincente Padilla*
Ryan Madson
Scott Eyre
Robinson Tejeda*
Geoff Geary

Game Preview: Eagles vs. Cowboys

Entering the season, Dallas was the trendy pick to challenge the Eagles for supremacy in the NFC East but, so far at least, that hasn’t happened. Instead, the Redskins have risen to the top of the division (though that won’t last) and the Giants have emerged as the Eagles’ true challenger while the Cowboys find themselves in last place with a 2-2 record.

When the Eagles have the ball:

Dallas brought in several new defensive starters to aid in their transition to the 3-4 defense. On paper, this unit was supposed to be a strength, but they haven’t been. The pass defense has given up too many big plays while the defense line has not freed kept blockers off the linebackers, allowing opposing running backs to break into the secondary. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense continues to be explosive in the passing game, while under utilizing that running game.

The Eagles shouldn’t have trouble scoring points today. Donovan McNabb will look to Terrell Owens deep early and often and TO should have a monster day. Meanwhile, look for Westbrook and Lamar Gordon to get a few more carries and have success running the ball, especially if Dallas’ leading tackler Dat Nguyen is forced to miss the game with a neck injury.

When the Cowboys have the ball:

The Cowboys’ offense has been a tale of two surprises; one pleasant, one not so pleasant.

The Cowboys offense was supposed to center around the running of Julius Jones, who was excellent during the second half of last year. But Jones has not been able to get untracked, averaging only 3.5 ypc. Meanwhile, newly acquired Drew Bledsoe was supposed to come in and merely provided stability and competence. Instead, Bledsoe has thrown the ball like he did ten years ago when he broke into the league with the Patriots. Bledsoe has had success throwing to Keyshawn Johnson, Patrick Crayton and especially Terry Glenn, who has averaged 25 ypc. Of course, he also has talented TE Jason Witten, who always give the Eagles fits. Bledsoe’s 96.2 passer rating this year is a full 10 pointes better than his career best.

One weakness in Dallas’ passing game has been rookie 6th round pick Rob Petitti. The massive RT out of Pittsburgh has potentially and is solid in the running game, but is not quick enough to handle good speed rushers. Last week former Eagle Derrick Burgess dominated Petitti, sacking Bledsoe twice.

Jevon Kearse should have a good day against Petitti, especially with the extra incentive of trying to match or beat his old teammate. Look for Jimmy Johnson to help Kearse by bringing blitzes on the edges and forcing the immobile Bledsoe to get rid of the ball quickly.

Prediction:

The Cowboys offense is good enough to score some points against the Eagles, but not enough to make it close. McNabb and Owens should both post big games against a weak Dallas secondary and Westbrook will finally break through with a big game on the ground.

Eagles win easily: 34-17

Key Matchup: C Hank Fraley vs. NT Jason Ferguson

Dallas ranks 24th against the run, giving up 115 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. With all the new talent on defense why have they been so poor against the run? Here’s a telling stats:

Dallas’ leading tacklers:

Dat Nguyen
Roy Williams
Anthony Henry
Keith Davis
Bradie James
Terence Newman

Four of their top six tacklers (and three of their top four) are members of the secondary. With Day Nguyen a possible scratch this week, make that four of the top five. Dallas’ opponents’ RBs are having great success getting not only into the 2nd level of the Dallas D but the 3rd level as well.

Will the Eagles have the same level of success? A lot of that depends on how C Hank Fraley handles Cowboys NT Jason Ferguson. The C vs. NT matchup is always key against 3-4 defenses and it will be especially true this week.

Fraley is an adequate center. He is one of the better centers in the league on screen passes and when pulling and he does ok as a pass blocker. He does not, however, excel as a straight drive blocker, which could be a problem against Ferguson.
Of all the new addition to the Cowboys’ D, Ferguson was the most important to making that 3-4 defense work. So far, the unit hasn’t jelled and the Cowboys D line has not been able to keep defensive linemen off of their LBs. If Fraley can handle Ferguson by himself and allow guards Shawn Andrews and Adrien Clark to block down on the next level, Brian Westbrook will be able to make some big plays in the running game. Ferguson is able to occupy Fraley and a guard, Westbrook’s job will be much harder.

Key Matchup: Terrell Owens vs. Dallas' Secondary

Cowboys coach Bill Parcells spent the offseason overhauling his defense and received praise for his major moves:

Signing CB Anthony Henry and NT Jason Ferguson and drafting DEs Marcus Spears and Chris Canty and LBs DeMarcus Ware and Kevin Burnett. That was a large infusion of talent but, so far at least, it has not brought results. The Cowboys are ranked 24th in total defense, giving up 340 yards per game.

At 225 yards a game, Dallas' pass defense ranks 22nd in the league. What is more illuminating than those numbers is how Dallas has given them up: in big chunks.

Check out how each of the Cowboys' opponents' #1 WRs have faired:

Keenan McCardell: 9 catches for 125 yards and 2 TDs
Santana Moss: 5 for 159 and 2
Brandon Lloyd: 4 for 142 and 2
Randy Moss: 4 for 123 and 0

In fact, Dallas yielded the above quartet a total of nearly 550 yards at a rate of 25 yards per catch.

Obviously, even with Henry's addition, the Cowboys' secondary is stilll just not that good. Despite his $25 million contract, Henry is no more than average as a cornerback. He does not have elite speed and has trouble playing big-time receiverss in man coverage. Last year, when Henry still played for Cleveland, Owens was able to beat him for big chunks of yardage: 4 catches for 109 yards (27.3 per catch) and two TDs.

The Cowboys thought they were getting a shutdown corner when they used the 5th pick of the 2003 draft on Terence Newman, who starts opposite Henry. Newman has shown flashes of brilliancee but has been very inconsistent.

The unit's biggest problem has been their safties. Starting free safty Keith Davis is an NFL Europe alum who played primarily on special teams last year and is uninspiring at best. Strong safety Roy Williams is the much bigger name... And perhaps one of the most overrated players in the NFL. Williams is excellent as a blitzer and in run support, but he is terrible in coverage. His overeagerness to make plays in the running game makes him vulnerable to play action. More important, he does not have good awareness when in coverage. This was most evident in week two when Santana Moss burned the Cowboys for two long, late TDs. On both plays Williams was late in reacting and could not get back in time to give his corners help over the top.

This week, the unit must face Terrell Owens, who is on pace for over 2000 yards. They will certainly roll coverage to his side and provide whichever corner who lines up on him with help deep. But with Williams and Davis back there, that might not matter. Don't be surprised if TO approaches 200 yards and scores two or three times.

More on Bush and Reid

A quick comment on Ellick's earlier post on Reid on Bush:

This is a similarity that I've found quite striking as well. Partly for the reasons Ellick mentions, but mostly for a different one.

President Bush lives in the most insular bubble this country has ever seen. He is surrounded only by like-minded sycophants (one of whom he has now nominated to the Supreme Court) and he doesn’t have the intelligence, intellectual curiosity, or even the desire to take a critical look at reality. Be it tax cuts, Iraq, Katrina, stem cells or whatever, Bush tries to shift reality to fit his worldview, not the other way around. A recent Newsweek article by Evan Thomas illustrated Bush’s bubble well:

“Bush can be petulant about dissent; he equates disagreement with disloyalty. After five years in office, he is surrounded largely by people who agree with him. Bush can ask tough questions, but it's mostly a one-way street. Most presidents keep a devil's advocate around… How this could be—how the president of the United States could have even less ‘situational awareness,’ as they say in the military, than the average American about the worst natural disaster in a century—is one of the more perplexing and troubling chapters in a story that, despite moments of heroism and acts of great generosity, ranks as a national disgrace”

Unlike Bush, Reid is not unintelligent (the fact that he has been so successful as the Eagles coach while Bush has been such a dismal failure can attest to that). But he suffers from the same insular stubbornness that Bush does.

Andy Reid does not adapt well, either during a game or throughout a season.

During games, this can haunt the Eagles. For instance, in last year’s Super Bowl the Eagles got off to a strong start and seemed, if not in control, then at least in a strong position. But then the Pats adjusted, spreading out four wide receivers and picking the Eagles apart with screens to Corey Dillon. The Eagles never countered and lost.

Throughout the season, it can lead to inexplicable and frustrating decisions. Take Reid’s decision not to activate Todd France for the Raiders game. Here is how Reid explained it: “‘It's probably not the smartest move,’ Reid said of his decision not to activate another kicker. ‘I thought David was feeling better, all the reports that I got.’”

“All the reports I got?” That sounds vaguely familiar.

Even more infuriating is Reid’s reaction to McNabb’s health. The Eagles MUST have an at-least semi-healthy McNabb to succeed in the playoffs this year. We have argued that McNabb should have surgery to fix his hernia now so that he will be ready for the playoffs. Now that McNabb and Reid have ruled this out, it would be sensible to at least, one would think, try to adjust the game plan to limit McNabb’s exposure, perhaps by throwing the ball less. But when Reid was asked before the Kansas City game if he would take such a tack, his response was incredulous: "We do what we have to do to win games. If it means throwing 50 times, then you throw 50 times."

Against KC, they did throw the ball 50 times (well, 48). And they did win. But will Reid’s inflexibility win us the battle only to lose us the war in the end?

After the game, Reid said "I think the important thing is finding a way to win the football game. I really think, when it is all said and done, that people really don't care [how you do it].” Put him in a flight suit with a “Mission Accomplished” banner behind him and he’d be right at home.

Andy Reid and George Bush

Run Andy Run: Intellectual Eagles Commentary

On Wednesday, Andy Reid continued his sly demeanor by dodging questions regarding the health of his players. This time the target of inquiry is kicker David Akers, who is rumored to be sidelined for 10 weeks, although the Eagles have refused comment. Here’s a graph from today’s Philly Inquirer:

"We'll see how it all works out," he began his third we'll-see statement. "We are going to take it week-by-week and see how he does here. Everyone is different with how they heal, and I'm not going to sit here and throw times at you."

Were Reid a national figure, the Daily Show would piggyback his “we’ll see” sound bites and blast him for ambiguity.

Reid is a good coach, but this posting is dedicated to anyone who cannot grasp my hatred for him.

Why doesn’t Reid inform his fan base, the same fan base he methodically praise as a 12th man after each press conference, the status of an injured all-pro kicker?

Secrecy and deceit lie at the core to this organizations relationship with media, and therefore, with its community. The Eagles are steered by a bunch of Fascists and they run the team no different than how the Bush administration runs the United States.

In developed nations like the United States, nearly every medical conditional is diagnosed, especially when patients visit esteemed medical professionals atop their field. With a diagnosis comes a timetable for recovery and an estimated return to sport. Indeed, sometimes that can change, but there are windows of expectations. If Akers was in Sierra Leone, and he couldn’t find a doctor there to properly diagnosis him, I might be more sympathetic. But this is America, and it’s now 10 days since Akers was injured. The Eagles SURELY have a diagnosis, but they choose to be purposefully vague. It’s only natural to assume Reid is concealing bad news.

What’s his incentive to withhold information? The Eagles already sell out every game. They destroyed the Phillies last Sunday in the TV ratings, despite playing a regular season game against an AFC team, while the Phillies were fighting for a playoff bid in their regular season finale. Are the Eagles afraid that if opponents learn the truth on Akers, perhaps it can backfire on the field? Akers is great, but he’s a kicker. Teams cannot possibly alter their game plan depending on Akers’ status.

The irony is that if Akers is indeed out 10 weeks, it really doesn’t matter. It’s no different than our plea for McNabb to have surgery so he will return at 100 percent for the playoffs. The Eagles may lose a game or two without Akers (probably three without McNabb) but they will make the playoffs regardless. The only goal is to enter the playoffs healthy. Even the fight for “home field advantage” is a staged battle. Just see NFC title losses at home vs. TB 2002 and CAR 2003.

This is hardly the first time Reid has deceived fans. After the Eagles loss to Carolina in the NFC title game two years ago, in which the WRs were hideous, Reid was asked to assess his WRs. He vehemently defend Stinktson(Todd Pinkston) and Trash (James Thrash)—as he had the previous two years. “We are fine at WR.” The only dose of blame was on himself “I need to take a look at things,” —his most common retort. Months later, he’s engaged in a bitter fight to woo TO, and upon signing TO, he cuts Trash. So much for the WRs being sufficient.

I don’t have enough time to cite supporting examples regarding Bush, but here is a recent one: FEMA and Michael Brown. For days after the hurricane, Bush defended the rescue operation, and only later, after firing Brown, did he put the blame on himself.

Here's one more: This week Bush said the number of fully-trained Iraq units has increased, but last week two military authorities testified that the number has decreased from five to one.

Both Bush and Reid aren’t candid with their customers, be it taxpayers, or season-ticket holders. Bush, as a federal authority, is more obligated to be candid and to inform citizens about his actions. It must be noted that Reid runs a private organization and has no legal obligation to even speak to the press. But sport is more akin to governance than most private businesses (hence, they take our money for stadiums that put money back into their pocket), and the Eagles are insanely foolish for not being more forthright about their thoughts, moves, etc. I’m not calling for them to reveal their draft aspirations in March (that would clearly threaten “national security”) but it would be warming if Reid could be more frank regarding injuries and other matters, like assessing positions at season’s end.

To legitimize this ostensibly absurd analogy, allow me to remind you about how the Eagles banned fans from hanging signs in the Linc (as a kid, I remember entering the Vet and immediately asking my dad for binoculars so I could read the creative signs draped over the end zone wall). This is a free speech issue, hardly Bush’s claim to fame. And don’t forget the Eagles even tried to ban fans from bringing Hoagies to the stadium, until public outrage forced them to be more democratic.

When Jim Johnson retires, maybe our next defensive coordinator will be Donald Rumsfeld.